Manitoba

부동산 투자, 지금이 적기일까 아닐까?

작성일 2008.07.10 20:56

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전반적인 캐나다 부동산 주택시장이 많이 위축되는 중에도 매니토바주와 서스캐처원주만 주택 판매 건수가 소폭 상승 또는 감소되는 추세에 있으며 평균 판매금액도 많이 증가되었다고 합니다.

다른 주에 비하여 지난 몇년동안 주택 가격 인상이 상대적으로 소폭이었다는 점은 인정을 하지만, 석유때문에 갑자기 일자리를 많아져 다른 주로부터 찾아 오는 이주자가 많은 알버타주나 외국에서 오는 이민자가 급격이 증가하여 주택이 엄청 모자라는 BC주처럼 특별한 이유가 없는 매니토바주의 주택 가격이 짧은 기간동안 엄청 오르니 부동산시장에 대하여 잘 모르는 사람으로서 정말 어리둥절할 따름입니다.

근거가 없는 뜬소문이긴하지만, 어떤 사람은 다른 주에서 주택투기를 했던 사람들(부동산 투기꾼들-주로 유태인계통)이 다른 주의 부동산 상승세가 한풀 꺽이니 더 많은 이익을 위하여 매니토바주/위니펙 부동산 시장으로 몰려들었다는 얘기도 있고, 매니토바 주정부 이민 프로그램(MPNP)으로 매년 들어오는 10,000여명의 사람들로 인해 주택수요가 많아져 가격이 상승된다고 추측을 하는 사람도 있습니다. 생각해 보면 이 이상한 부동산 현상에 대한 그럴듯한 설명 같기도 하고...

어쨌든 요즘 가격 상승세가 소폭 감소세로 돌아섰으니 집을 사려는 분들은 전후좌우 잘 상황판단을 해서 사야하지 않을지 걱정을 해봅니다.

지난 7월 9일자 위니펙 프리 프레스에 따르면, 올해 첫 5개월동안 다른 주의 도시들과 비교하여 위니펙 주택시장의 판매감소율은 3.5%정도 소폭 떨어졌고 판매 평균 금액으론 18%정도 증가를 했다고 합니다.

한 부동산 전문가는 올해 말까지 캐나다 전체적으로 따져서 주택 가격 상승율이 사스케츈(19.5%) 다음으로 위니펙이 11%로 2위 자리에 오를 것으로 예측한다고 합니다.

캐나다 각 도시간 주택 판매율 비교

(2007년 같은 기간과 비교하여 올해 첫 5개월 증감율)

도시명(City) 판매건수(Unit sales) 평균 판매 금액(Average selling price)

----------- ------------------- ----------------------------------

Vancouver -14.2 % +9.9 %

Calgary -34.2 % +1.6 %

Edmonton -30.1 % +1.4 %

Regina +1.2 % +52.9 %

Saskatoon -9.4 % +34.9 %

Winnipeg -3.5 % +18 %

Toronto -12.5 % +4.5 %

출처- 캐나다 부동산 협회(Canadian Real Estate Association)

더 자세한 기사는 아래의 기사를 읽어보세요.

출처 : Winnipeg Free Press

City resists cooling trend
Housing market still red-hot
By: Murray McNeill

Updated: July 9 at 12:45 AM CDT

Winnipeg remains a pillar of strength in a weakening Canadian housing market, racking up another month of near record-breaking sales in June and outperforming most other major cities over the first five months of the year.

"Compared to other major (Canadian) cities, Winnipeg is very much a stand-out," Gregory Klump, chief economist for the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said Tuesday.

Klump said Winnipeg not only had one of the smallest declines in unit sales over the first five months of this year -- 3.5 per cent -- but also one of the biggest increases in average selling prices -- 18 per cent.

And CREA predicts Winnipeg will also finish the year with the second biggest price increase in the country, at 11 per cent. The only city it thinks will do better is Saskatoon, with a projected 19.5 per cent.

While the resale homes market has already begun to cool in other parts of the country, Klump said the slowdown is much less pronounced in Winnipeg because homes here are still affordable despite five consecutive years of double-digit price gains.

"You didn't get the kind of lofty price increases that some other markets have witnessed," he said, noting cities like Calgary and Saskatoon were seeing price gains of 45 and 50 per cent while Winnipeg's annual increases were still in the low to mid teens.

But even thought the Canadian market is cooling down, Klump said it's not expected to experience the kind of meltdown that has rocked the U.S. housing market in the past year. "There is a growing sense that it's just returning to a more normal market that is not characterized by multiple offers and bidding wars," he added.

While that transition has already begun in other parts of the country, there is still no sign of that occurring in Winnipeg's turbo-charged market, where two out of every three homes are still selling for at or above the list price.

According to Winnipeg REALTORS Association figures released Tuesday, last month was not only the best June on record for the WRA's Multiple Listing Service, but the best months ever in terms of both unit sales and dollar volume of sales.

The WRA said 1,564 properties sold last month for a total of $317 million.

Not only was that the second best monthly unit-sales total in the association's 105-year history -- the best was May, 2007's 1,652 -- but it was also the second highest dollar total behind May, 2008's $319.7 million.

It was also the second month in a row that the dollar volume of sales topped the $300-million mark.

"Nothing like two consecutive months of exceptional and positive MLS sales activity," said WRA president Darlene Clare. "It is almost like we did a copy and paste on May for June, as even the new listings are very close in numbers."

The association said new listings were up by 16 per cent for the month, while the number of active listings -- the total number of properties for sale -- was up 28 per cent.

June's near-record-breaking performance left unit sales running two per cent behind last year's pace after the first six months of the year -- 6,817 compared to 6,954 -- and the dollar volume of sales running 13 per cent ahead -- $1.34 billion compared to $1.17 billion.

It also put Winnipeg on a pace to crack the $2-billion-sales threshhold for the second consecutive year, said Peter Squire, the WRA's residential market analyst.

Squire said with two more in June, the WRA has already recorded seven one-million-plus sales for the year. That ties the annual record set in 2006 with half of the year still to go.

Squire said it's also great to see that Winnipeg's resale homes market continues to be one of the strongest performers in Canada in 2008.

"It doesn't always happen that Winnipeg stands out in the crowd, so it's kind of nice," he added. "This is a good news story, although it obviously can't go on forever."

Clare said one of the things that's helping to keep the Winnipeg market firing on all cylinders is the surge in new listings coming onto the market. While June's total of 2,150 is still a modest number by traditional standards, it's still a big improvement from the January of this year, when only 953 new properties came on the market.

She said local agents are hoping that trend continues in the second half of the year, adding, "everything points to that (happening."

The increase in new listings is part of a national trend which saw a record number of houses flood onto the Canadian market in April and May of this year. Klump said that's a big reason why price increases have begun to moderate in other cities -- buyers have more product to chose from and the competition for properties is less frantic.

murray.mcneill@freepress.mb.ca

Here is a city-by-city comparision of unit sales and average selling prices for the residential properties during the first five months of this year compared to the same period in 2007:

City Unit sales Average selling price

Vancouver -14.2 % +9.9 %

Calgary -34.2 % +1.6 %

Edmonton -30.1 % +1.4 %

Regina +1.2 % +52.9 %

Saskatoon -9.4 % +34.9%

Winnipeg -3.5 % +18 %

Toronto -12.5 % +4.5 %

--Source: Canadian Real Estate Association